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VD
Quantitative Risk Assessment
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Course code: 161339 (MOD)
Language of instruction: English
Duration of the course: 10 days (90h)
Lecturers: Dr. Valerio Cozzani (CONPRICI - University of Bologna), Dott. Ernesto Salzano (CNR - Istituto di Ricerche Sulla Combustione)
Assessment: Written Exam Transfer Paper [optional topic for Project Study Paper]
Credit points: 5 CPs
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Short description
The module presents an introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis, thus illustrating the necessary steps for the calculation of risk indexes.Practical approach to frequency calculation and consequence assessment, including vulnerability models, is discussed. A specific focus on domino effect and accidents triggered by Natural-Technological (Na-Tech) events is presented.
In the second part the aim of is the introduction to transportation risk analysis. The risk assessment of road, rail and pipeline transportation of hazardous substances is illustrated. The approaches to frequency calculation, consequence assessment and risk assessment is discussed. Case-studies are analyzed to illustrate the calculation and the use of individual, societal and other advanced risk indexes.
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Objectives
3.1 Knowledge
The main goal of the modules is to give an introduction to Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) and to introduce the participants to the analysis of risks originated outside the process boundary, i.e. due to external events. More specifically: domino effects and Na-Tech accidents due to earthquakes, flooding, lightning. The participants will be introduced to the more accepted methodologies for chemical process risk analysis, with particular emphasis to the recent advancement on consequence analysis.
A focus on the methods for the evaluation of domino effects will be presented, exemplifying the assessment of complex industrial layouts. Na-Tech analysis methodologies developed within the iNTeg-Risk project will provide training in supporting the resilience of industrial facilities to accidental scenario triggered by natural events. The goal of the second part of the module is to give an introduction to transportation risk assessment. The part, building on basic knowledge of risk and consequence analysis concepts will introduce the participants to the numerical calculation of risk indexes and their use in the context of assessment of safety of land transportation of hazardous goods and hazardous substances.
3.2. Skills
The participants will acquire the capability of undertaking the QRA and
transportation risk assessment studies and of interpreting the results of
such studies.
3.3. Competences
Being part of the team performing the above studies and taking care of single issues.
Course Content by Units
QRA:
- Definitions and risk metric
- Basic elements for risk calculation: scenario selection, frequency and consequence assessment
- Risk calculation
- Quantitative assessment of domino effect
- Assessment of the industrial risk induced by natural events (Na-Tech)
- Case-studies and use of risk results
TRANSPORTATION RISKS:
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Hazards in the land transportation of hazardous substances
- Basic elements for risk calculation: scenario selection, frequency and consequence assessment
- Risk for the environment and tunnel fires
- Basic elements for risk calculation: scenario selection, frequency and consequence assessment
- Use of risk analysis results
Teaching Methods
Ex-cathedra lecturing.
Use of a case-study for practical demonstration.
Use of software tools for numerical calculations and mapping.
Literature
- Textbook: CCPS AIChe series on risk assessment (QRA, Consequence Analysis)
- Council Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major-accident hazards
- Directive 2003/105/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2003 amending Council Directive 96/82/EC.
- Textbook: Introduction to transportation risk assessment (Version 1, due in January 2013)
- Directive 2006/89/EC of 3 November 2006 adapting for the sixth time to technical progress Council Directive 94/55/EC on the approximation of the laws of the Member States with regard to the transport of dangerous goods by road (ADR)
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Directive 2006/90/EC of 3 November 2006 adapting for the seventh time to technical progress Council Directive 96/49/EC on the approximation of the laws of the Member States with regard to the transport of dangerous goods by rail (RID)
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